The future of electromobility – IEA’s Global EV Outlook 2026

After another record year for electric vehicle sales in 2025, the global EV market is set to grow again in 2026. Let’s dive into the latest facts, figures and forecasts from the IEA’s Global EV Outlook 2026.

Note: In this article, “electric cars” and “EVs” follow the IEA definition and include both battery electric cars and plug-in hybrid electric cars, unless stated otherwise.

EV sales in 2025

Like the years before, 2025 was another record year for electric vehicles. Worldwide, more than 20 million electric cars were sold, meaning that one in four new cars sold globally was electric.

Compared with 2024, global electric car sales grew by around 20%. This marked the fifth consecutive year in which annual electric car sales increased by about 3.5 million vehicles.

Market developments varied strongly by region. Europe saw the strongest growth among the major EV markets, while China remained by far the largest market. In the United States, sales remained relatively stable, but policy changes and the end of EV tax credits affected sales towards the end of the year.

Battery electric cars also gained ground again in 2025. Their share of total electric car sales increased to around 65%, reversing the trend seen in the previous two years.

Key figures of 2025

• More than 20 million electric cars were sold worldwide in 2025, around 20% more than in 2024.
• 25% of all new cars sold globally were electric in 2025.
• China remained the largest EV market, with more than 13 million electric cars sold and EVs accounting for almost 55% of new car sales.
• Europe recorded strong growth: electric car sales rose by more than 30% to over 4 million vehicles, reaching a market share of around 28%.
• The United States remained below 10% EV market share, with sales relatively stable overall but weaker towards the end of the year after tax credits ended.
• Southeast Asia more than doubled its annual electric car sales, reaching a sales share of nearly 20%.
• Latin America grew by 75%, led by Brazil and Mexico.
• More than 100 countries recorded growth in electric car sales in 2025.
• Chinese automakers supplied around 60% of global electric car sales in 2025.

What does 2026 have in store?

The IEA expects global electric car sales to rise to around 23 million in 2026. That would mean electric cars account for about 28% of total car sales worldwide.

The first quarter of 2026 showed a mixed picture. Global electric car sales were around 8% lower than in the same period in 2025, mainly because of lower sales in China and the United States following important policy changes. However, many other markets continued to grow strongly.

In Europe, electric car sales were up by close to 30% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026. Countries in Asia Pacific excluding China recorded growth of around 80%, while electric car sales in Latin America were up by 75%.

For 2026, the IEA expects Europe to see the strongest growth among the major markets. Sales are projected to increase by around 20%, meaning that roughly one in three cars sold in Europe could be electric. In China, electric cars are expected to approach 60% of new car sales.

Higher petrol and diesel prices are also making the lower running costs of EVs more visible. According to the IEA, annual fuel cost savings from driving an EV in the European Union were around 35% higher in April 2026 than in 2025.

Electric trucks and buses

Electrification of the heavy-duty sector is becoming increasingly important for reducing transport emissions. Trucks represent a smaller share of the total vehicle fleet than cars, but they account for a disproportionately large share of road transport energy use and emissions.

In 2025, global electric truck sales more than doubled compared with 2024. Electric trucks reached around 9% of total truck sales worldwide.

China is driving most of this growth. In 2025, one in four trucks sold in China was electric. Electric truck sales also grew in Europe and North America, although from a much lower base.

Electric trucks are still more expensive to buy than diesel trucks, but their total cost of ownership is becoming increasingly competitive. In China, electric trucks are already cost-competitive in many use cases thanks to falling battery prices. In Europe, the IEA expects electric trucks to reach total cost of ownership parity with diesel trucks by around 2030.

Charging infrastructure is key to enabling this shift. The European Union now has more than 1,000 charging points exclusively for electric trucks, and megawatt charging is becoming a central technology for long-distance electric trucking.

And how about EV charging infrastructure?

Most EV charging still happens at home or at work. But as millions more EVs hit the roads, public charging networks must keep pace, especially in dense urban areas, for long-distance travel and for electric fleets.

The IEA’s Global EV Outlook 2026 places growing emphasis not only on the number of charge points, but also on charging power, location quality, reliability, grid connection and utilisation.

Worldwide, private charging remains essential. In 2025, there were more than 43 million private chargers for light-duty electric vehicles globally, with Europe accounting for around one-third of them.

Public charging remains particularly important for drivers without access to private charging, for long trips and for commercial use cases. In Europe, the rollout is supported by initiatives such as the AFIR Regulation, which sets requirements for charging coverage along major transport routes.

Fast charging infrastructure on the rise

Fast and ultra-fast charging is becoming increasingly important. Higher charging speeds help reduce waiting times, improve the long-distance driving experience and make EVs more convenient for users without access to home charging.

Technological advances in power electronics, battery cells and battery pack architecture are enabling faster charging. In 2025, the first 1,000-volt vehicle models came to market, and announcements of charging times below 10 minutes continued into 2026.

However, only a small share of the global EV stock can currently use very high charging power. According to the IEA, electric cars capable of using chargers above 250 kW still represent less than 5% of the global vehicle stock.

Forecast: Stronger and smarter charging infrastructure

The majority of charging will continue to take place at home and at work. Nevertheless, public charging infrastructure must expand and become more powerful, especially to support dense urban areas, highway travel, fleets and heavy-duty vehicles.

For the next phase of EV adoption, it will not be enough to simply install more charge points. The market increasingly needs high-power chargers, reliable uptime, transparent pricing, easy payment options and grid-ready planning.

New technologies: Megawatt Charging System

The Megawatt Charging System is becoming increasingly important for heavy-duty electric vehicles. Large truck batteries need to charge quickly during planned breaks to make electric long-distance transport viable.

Megawatt charging enables charging power above 1,000 kW, significantly reducing charging times for large batteries. However, deploying this infrastructure requires strong grid connections, smart energy management, load balancing and often battery storage to manage peak demand.

Megawatt charging is therefore not just a charging hardware topic. It is becoming an integrated energy and infrastructure challenge for logistics hubs, truck depots and highway charging corridors.

Charging stations and energy grids are merging

As EV adoption grows, electricity demand from transport will rise. According to the IEA, electricity demand from EVs could exceed 1,500 TWh by 2035, around six times the 2025 level.

Globally, this would increase total electricity demand in 2035 by only about 4%. However, the impact differs by region. Across Europe, EV deployment in road transport could increase electricity demand by more than 10% by 2035, compared with less than 6% in China.

This makes smart charging, load management and grid integration increasingly important. By closely connecting charging infrastructure with energy systems through smart charging and technologies like Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G), charging can be adapted to grid capacity, electricity prices and renewable energy availability.

At Virta, we’re committed to contributing to a sustainable future made possible by connected EVs and energy systems. That’s why we’re excited to be included in the IEA’s Task 53, an initiative to improve the interoperability of V2G.

EV growth in new markets

While China, Europe and the United States remain the largest EV markets, some of the fastest growth is now happening in emerging economies.

In Southeast Asia, annual electric car sales more than doubled in 2025, reaching a sales share of nearly 20%. Growth was led by Viet Nam, Indonesia and Thailand.

In Latin America, electric car sales grew by 75% in 2025, led by Brazil and Mexico. More affordable imports, especially from China, are helping to accelerate adoption in several markets.

In many emerging markets, policy support remains crucial. Tax incentives, import duty exemptions, charging infrastructure programmes and local production policies can all help make EVs more affordable and accessible.

Other developments in e-mobility

Price development

Affordability remains one of the most important factors for EV adoption. In China, the shift is already far advanced: in 2025, around 70% of battery electric cars sold were cheaper than the average conventional car.

In Europe, the market is still more dependent on regulation, model availability and pricing strategies. In 2025, stricter CO2 standards encouraged manufacturers to adjust prices and introduce more affordable electric models.

In several emerging markets, affordable Chinese imports are also reshaping the market. In Thailand, electric car prices have been roughly on par with comparable ICE cars for the past two years. In Indonesia, the average price premium for electric cars fell from over 50% in 2024 to around 40% in 2025.

Vehicle size and its effect on the environment

The trend towards larger vehicles and SUVs continues to affect the environmental footprint of transport. Larger vehicles generally require larger batteries, more materials and more energy during production.

This can increase demand for critical minerals such as lithium, nickel and cobalt. It can also increase manufacturing emissions, even if the vehicle is fully electric.

More compact and efficient electric cars can help reduce battery demand, raw material use and costs while still meeting the needs of many everyday drivers.

Battery production and supply chains

China continues to dominate global EV and battery production. In 2025, China accounted for nearly 75% of global electric car production and more than 80% of global battery cell production.

China also holds even higher shares in the production of active battery materials. Almost all battery cells used worldwide are supplied by companies headquartered in China, Korea or Japan.

Europe and the United States are investing in regional battery supply chains, but the gap remains large. According to the IEA, China is set to remain the largest producer of batteries and battery materials to 2035 based on stated policies.

Range and charging performance

Range continues to improve across many vehicle segments, especially mid-size cars and SUVs. However, for many users, the key question is no longer maximum range alone, but the combination of price, range, charging speed and access to reliable charging infrastructure.

Faster charging is becoming more relevant as vehicles, batteries and charging networks evolve. The first 1,000-volt vehicles entered the market in 2025, while ultra-fast and megawatt-scale charging are expanding in parallel.

Electricity and oil demand

As e-mobility grows, electricity demand rises. But EVs also reduce oil consumption significantly. In 2025, the global EV fleet avoided around 1.7 million barrels of oil per day.

By 2030, annual oil displacement from EVs is on track to reach around 5 million barrels per day. China alone displaced around 1 million barrels per day in 2025 and is set to displace around 2.7 million barrels per day by 2030.

This makes EV adoption not only a climate issue, but also an energy security issue, especially for countries that rely heavily on oil imports.

Technology trends: software, AI and autonomous vehicles

The Global EV Outlook 2026 also highlights the growing importance of software and artificial intelligence in the automotive industry.

Following the lead of pure-play EV manufacturers, many major automakers are developing vehicles with more centralised software systems. These allow key vehicle functions to be updated remotely and support a wide range of new services and performance improvements.

Battery electric vehicles are currently among the most advanced software-defined vehicles. Important applications include advanced driver assistance systems, automated steering and speed control, better battery management and autonomous driving.

Driverless taxis are now operating commercially in more than 20 cities, mainly in China and the United States. According to the IEA, all of these robotaxis are electric.

At the same time, software-defined and autonomous vehicles create new challenges, including cybersecurity risks, higher semiconductor demand and more geographically concentrated supply chains.

The IEA’s outlook to 2035

In the Global EV Outlook 2026, the IEA works with exploratory scenarios based on current policies and stated policy settings. Even without new policy announcements, the global EV fleet is expected to grow strongly.

Current Policies Scenario

The Current Policies Scenario reflects policies that are already in place. Even under this scenario, the global EV fleet could grow more than sixfold from 2025 levels by 2035, reaching up to 510 million vehicles. Electric two- and three-wheelers are not included in this number.

Stated Policies Scenario

The Stated Policies Scenario also considers announced policies and targets that have a realistic implementation perspective. Across the IEA’s exploratory scenarios, EVs could account for around 50% of global car sales by 2035.

In China, electric cars could exceed 90% of total car sales by 2035. In Europe, CO2 standards continue to drive EV adoption, while Southeast Asia could see a strong increase in EV sales shares as affordability improves.

Conclusion

The Global EV Outlook 2026 shows that electric mobility is continuing to grow, despite political uncertainty, regional differences and changing market conditions.

China remains the global leader in EV sales, production, exports and batteries. Europe regained momentum in 2025, supported by stricter CO2 standards and new model launches. The United States remains an important market, but policy changes have slowed growth. At the same time, emerging markets in Southeast Asia and Latin America are becoming increasingly important.

For charging infrastructure, the next phase is not just about more charge points. It is about more powerful, reliable, user-friendly and grid-integrated charging networks. Ultra-fast charging, megawatt charging, smart charging and Vehicle-to-Grid will be key technologies for the coming years.

Challenges remain around affordability, battery supply chains, grid connections, charging deployment and policy stability. But the overall trend is clear: EVs are becoming an increasingly important part of the global transport and energy system.

Are you interested in running an EV charging business? See how Virta can help you become profitable:

Source:

IEA Global EV Outlook 2026

The IEA (International Energy Agency), based in Paris, was established in response to the oil crisis. It was initially created to help countries respond to oil supply disruptions. Today, it provides data and analysis across the energy sector, including the future of electric mobility.