The future of electromobility – IEA’s Global EV Outlook 2025

Following 2022’s steps, 2023 and 2024 brought us record-breaking electric vehicle (EV) sales. And 2025 seems ready to do it again. Let’s dive deeper into the latest facts, figures and predictions for the global EV market.

EV sales in 2024

Like 2023, 2024 was a record year for the sale of battery-powered vehicles. Worldwide, 17 million plug-in hybrids and fully electric cars were sold, which corresponds to more than 20% of total sales.

In 2024 alone, 3.5 million more EVs were sold than in the previous year - this exceeds the total number of electric cars sold worldwide in 2020.

High inflation, expiring purchase incentives, and the lack of government impulses caused concerns about the success of e-mobility in many countries and also led to very negative reporting on the sales of electric vehicles.

For those reasons, electric vehicle sales stagnated in Europe in 2024, but the market share remained stable at around 20%; strong sales in some countries compensated for declines in others.

Nevertheless, the IEA predicts strong global sales figures and a rosy future for electromobility. In the first three months of 2025, sales of e-vehicles increased by 35% compared to the same period last year.

China remains the driving force behind the global EV sales. Half of the sales are currently taking place there. In 2024, 11 million electric cars were sold in China - more than the global sales of just two years ago. 

Key figures of 2024

• More than 17 million EVs were sold worldwide in 2024, over 25% more than the previous year. That means we’re now selling more electric cars in a month than the entire year just a decade ago.
• 20% of all vehicles sold were electric in 2024, up from 18% in 2023.
• China remains the powerhouse: over 11 million EVs sold domestically in 2024, making up nearly half of all car sales and almost two-thirds of global EV sales.
• EV sales held steady at around 20% market share in Europe, despite subsidy cuts in major markets like Germany and France.
• 60 million electric vehicles were on the road worldwide in 2024 - 35% more than in 2022 and six times as many as in 2018.
• The United States saw EV sales rise to 1.6 million, surpassing 10% of new car sales, though growth slowed compared to 2023.
• Emerging markets are surging: EV sales in Asia (excluding China) and Latin America jumped over 60%, hitting nearly 600,000 units in 2024.
• By the end of 2024, almost 58 million electric cars were on the roads globally, surpassing the 2021 total.

Electric trucks and buses

Electrification of the heavy-duty sector is integral to our journey towards zero-emission transportation. While heavy-duty trucks only account for 10% of all internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, they are responsible for over 70% of ICE’s CO2 emissions.

Global electric truck sales surged nearly 80% in 2024, hitting 2% of total truck sales. Development and implementation are mainly concentrated in the Chinese market, where 75,000 electric trucks were sold in 2024, accounting for over 80% of global sales. Total cost of ownership (TCO) parity is already a reality in China for many use cases, while Europe and the US are expected to reach it by 2030.

Government efforts to reduce emissions from heavy-duty trucks are worth highlighting. The EU aims for 45% emission cuts in trucks by 2030 and 90% by 2040, with all new city buses to be zero-emission by 2030.

There are over 800 electric truck models available globally. In 2024, Volvo and Scania released long-range electric trucks with over 600 km of range.

And how about EV charging infrastructure?

Most EV charging happens at home or work. But as millions more EVs hit the roads, public charging networks must keep pace, especially in dense urban areas with limited private chargers.

From 2022 to 2024, the number of public charge points doubled globally, to over 5 million. Two-thirds of the growth since 2020 happened in China.

Europe leads on coverage, with fast chargers every 50 km on over 75% of highways. However, growth isn’t even: the US and UK are falling behind, with EVs per public charger increasing in 2024. In Europe, public charging infrastructure exceeded the mark of 1 million charge points, which corresponds to a growth of 35%. Within the EU, 11 out of 27 countries even recorded an increase of more than 50%. The Netherlands is in the lead with 180,000 public charging points, followed by Germany (160,000) and France (155,000).

European initiatives such as the AFIR Regulation, which sets requirements for coverage on major European roads, and the EU Building Directive, ensure that the European public charging network continues to grow and EV drivers are offered convenient charging possibilities. According to the IEA, charging infrastructure needs to grow ninefold by 2030 to support projected EV sales under current policies.

Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) and smart charging are becoming real options to help balance the demand, with active pilots in Australia, China, the UK, and elsewhere. Leading automakers collaborate on standards to enable EVs to become flexible grid resources. 

Fast charging infrastructure on the rise

In 2024, the expansion of the fast and ultra-fast charging infrastructure in Europe accelerated significantly. Ultra-fast chargers (150 kW+) grew 50% to 71.000 chargers and now make up nearly 10% of all public fast chargers.

About 20% of ultra-fast chargers in the EU already offer charging capacities of 350 kW and more, even though only a few vehicles can fully use this power so far.

Forecast: Stronger public charging infrastructure

The majority of charging will continue to take place at home and at work. Despite that, the IEA expects expansion of public charging infrastructures, especially to meet the increasing demand of heavy-duty commercial vehicles that are undergoing rapid electrification. Already now, ultra-fast and megawatt charging stations are being built along important traffic routes to serve this specific use case.

By 2030, the number of public charge points worldwide could increase almost eightfold and grow to around 40 million. For Europe, the IEA predicts an increase from 1 million to more than 2 million public charge points by 2030.

New technologies: Megawatt Charging System

The topic of megawatt charging systems is becoming increasingly important, especially for heavy-duty commercial vehicles and, in the future, also for passenger cars. The first megawatt charging stations were installed worldwide in 2024, marking an important milestone for heavy-duty electric trucks.

Megawatt chargers enable charging capacities of more than 1,000 kW and thus drastically shorten the charging times for large batteries, which is a decisive factor for the use of electric trucks in long-distance transport. The first station models and charging platforms with megawatt charging technology have also been announced to be available for passenger cars, for example, in China.

However, expanding this ultra-fast charging infrastructure requires significant investment in the power grid and smart energy management solutions, such as coupling with battery storage to ease load peaks.

Megawatt charging is a key technology for increasing the everyday suitability and competitiveness of electric commercial vehicles and driving the transport sector’s electrification.

Charging stations and energy grids are merging

The IEA states that even widespread EV adoption would only account for about 2.5% of global electricity demand by 2030. However, we still see a strong need for grid-ready planning, especially for heavy-duty infrastructures that will place new demand on electricity systems.

By closely merging charging infrastructures with electricity grids through smart charging and technologies like Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G), we can flexibly adapt charging processes to the power supply and grid capacities, allowing us to further develop electric mobility in a sustainable manner. 

At Virta, we're committed to contributing to sustainable future made possible by connected EVs and energy systems. That's why we're excited to be included in the IEA’s Task 53, an initiative to improve the interoperability of V2G.

EV growth in new markets

While China, Europe, and the US still account for most EV sales, the real boom is happening in emerging economies.

In Southeast Asia, sales grew nearly 50% in 2024. Thailand’s EV sales share climbed to 13%, while Indonesia’s tripled. Latin America also surged, with Brazil more than doubling its sales to 125,000 units (over 6% market share) and other countries like Colombia and Costa Rica achieving about 15% penetration.

Africa remains under 1% share, though sales more than doubled in 2024, driven by Egypt and Morocco.

In emerging markets, policy support, such as tax breaks, import duty waivers, and local production incentives, is key.

Other developments in e-mobility

Price development

Despite falling battery prices and growing competition, EVs in Europe are significantly more expensive than combustion engines (ICEs). In Germany, for example, the purchase price for an EV is still, on average, 10 to 20% higher than that of a comparable ICE vehicle; for small models, it is even around 45%.

While in China, two-thirds of EVs are already cheaper than petrol cars, the range of affordable models in Europe remains limited. Only about 5% of the available electric cars cost less than €30,000, while with combustion engines, it’s almost a quarter. More models under €25,000 are expected to enter the market after 2025.

The IEA assumes that price parity will be reached by 2030 for most models.

Vehicle size and its effect on the environment

The trend towards larger vehicles and SUVs has a noticeable impact on emissions and resource consumption.

According to the IEA, around 800 million tons of CO2 could have been avoided worldwide in 2024 if all newly registered ICE and hybrid SUVs had been purely electric. This number roughly corresponds to China’s total road traffic emissions.

Large vehicles also require larger batteries, resulting in up to 75% higher demand for critical minerals and burdening supply chains. If all sold electric SUVs had been mid-size cars instead, around 70 GWh of battery capacity could have been saved worldwide without losing range.

However, the trend towards large vehicles continues: By 2028, only about a quarter of the new models will be small or mid-sized cars.

Battery production and supply chains

China continues to dominate global battery production for electric vehicles: in 2024, almost 80% of all battery cells produced came from Chinese factories.

China is also a leader in essential pre-products such as cathode and anode materials, with shares of over 85%.

While Europe and the US are trying to build up their own production capacities, the gap remains large. In Germany, for example, ambitious projects such as the Northvolt plant in Heide have stalled or been completely abandoned.

The IEA emphasises that greater diversification of supply chains and the development of regional battery factories are crucial to increasing supply security and reducing geopolitical risks.

Range

The average range of EVs is growing, especially in mid-size cars and SUVs. In 2024, it was around 380 km in these segments, while small cars will continue to range around 150 km, similar to 2015.

This shows that this range is usually sufficient for everyday urban life, while larger vehicles are increasingly optimised for longer distances.

Electricity demand

As e-mobility ramps up, electricity demand also increases. In 2024, the worldwide electricity consumption of the electric vehicle fleet was about 180 TWh, comparable to Argentina’s annual electricity consumption.

By 2030, EVs could account for about 2.5% of the total electricity demand worldwide and up to 4% in Europe. At the same time, by 2030, EVs are expected to replace over 5 million barrels of oil per day, with China alone contributing half of this reduction. This would make an important contribution to reducing fossil fuels.

What does 2025 have in store?

The 1st quarter of 2025 was off to a great start, with over 4 million EVs sold worldwide - 35% more than in 2024. By the end of the year, the IEA projects over 20 million new electric cars sold. That’s a 25% year-on-year increase, pushing EV sales to account for one in every four new vehicles sold globally.

The strongest growth is expected outside the largest markets of China, Europe, and the USA, as well as in the emerging countries of Asia, Latin America, and Africa. Electromobility is truly gaining momentum worldwide.

The three scenarios of the IEA

Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS)

Reflecting today’s policies, STEPS projects 40% of new car sales will be electric by 2030, with 245 million EVs on the road.

Announced Pledges Scenario (APS)

This scenario assumes governments meet their announced climate pledges. By 2030, over 55% of new cars could be electric, with nearly 300 million EVs globally. APS would avoid 5 million barrels of oil use per day by 2030.

Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE)

The Net Zero Scenario is defined by the narrow but achievable targets for the global energy sector to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050.

To achieve this ambitious goal, the share of EVs must reach 60% globally by 2030, and the global EV stock must reach 380 million by the same year. That makes this scenario the most ambitious of the three, requiring faster policy and market transformation.

This scenario clarifies how big the gap between current measures and the Paris climate goal remains.

Conclusion

Electric mobility is developing worldwide, but regional differences are apparent. While China is ahead in market ramp-up, prices and infrastructure, the growth in Europe and the USA is stagnating partly due to high prices and limited models.

The IEA forecasts show that the share of EVs in new registrations will continue to increase in the coming years, driven by falling battery prices, stricter CO2 requirements and the expansion of the charging infrastructure.

While challenges remain in terms of affordability, raw materials, battery supply, and the expansion of charging infrastructures, e-mobility will clearly make an important contribution to decarbonisation in the coming years.

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